UK Economics Focus What will 6% interest rates do to the economy? The Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that it is prepared to do whatever is necessary to protect the UK’s low inflation environment. But the costs of doing so might be rather higher than the... 14th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep to hike as labour market tightens (Jul 07) The focus this month will be on the Czech Republic, where both we and the markets are predicting a 25bps rise in interest rates to 3%. Elsewhere, interest rates are likely to remain on hold in Hungary... 17th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak labour data to signal cuts in Hungary (Jun 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a moderation in wage growth towards 6% should be enough to persuade the Monetary Council to cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.75%. Interest rates are... 6th July 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish SNB points to further rate hikes to come Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for 3 month interbank interest rates (Libor) by 25bps to 2.5% came as no surprise – indeed, the 3 month Libor itself had... 14th June 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will raise rates aggressively in H2 Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to hike Norwegian interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% leaves rates comfortably in line with the Bank’s own forecast published in March’s Monetary Policy Report... 30th May 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Firms better placed than consumers to withstand rate rises Debt servicing costs in the corporate sector are even closer to their early 1990s highs than those in the household sector. But there are a number of reasons why higher interest rates and therefore... 24th May 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese rates on hold until August, but risks still on the upside The weakness of the latest CPI and activity data, combined with cautious growth and inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan, has prompted us to tweak our rate forecasts down slightly. We now expect... 27th April 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank won’t wait long to continue tightening Although the Norges Bank unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4% today, we do not think that this represents a fundamental change in the outlook for Norwegian interest rates ahead. 25th April 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Falling inflation to offset drag on spending from rate rises The outlook for consumer spending this year hinges on which proves to be dominant - higher interest rates or falling inflation. The boost to real income growth from falling inflation should offset the... 20th March 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response SNB hints that tightening cycle is nearing peak Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 2.25% was fully expected – indeed, the 3 month Libor itself had already reached 2.25%... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norge Bank signals significant further tightenin The Norges Bank hiked interest rates today by 25bps to 4.0%, marking a fourth consecutive move and the ninth step in the tightening cycle which began in June 2005. This also keeps rates a step ahead... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Modest growth eases pressure on SNB to hike Data released earlier today showed Swiss GDP growth picking up only slightly in Q4, to 0.5% q/q from Q3’s disappointing 0.4%. The outturn was below the consensus forecast, which had been for arise of... 6th March 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Markets are complacent about upside risks to Japanese rates Most commentators have been quick to dismiss the significance of today’s increase in Japanese interest rates, taking their cue from the apparently dovish statement accompanying the announcement... 21st February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus When will ECB rates no longer be "low"? The European Central Bank’s stance that euro-zone interest rates are still “low” suggests that it might have to raise them significantly further to contain inflation. But the existence of some spare... 20th February 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is Monetarism back from the dead? The greater attention devoted to the money supply in recent months does not herald the return of full-bloodied Monetarism as the key foundation of UK economic policy. Rather, it reflects current... 5th February 2007 · 1 min read
