Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary & Romania still playing catch-up The fact that policymakers in both Hungary and Romania are still cutting interest rates when their counterparts elsewhere in the world have begun to withdraw stimulus measures reflects the depth of... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold for the rest of 2010. The economic upswing should... 27th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cut will do little to spur economy Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its key interest rates by 25bps came as no surprise. But cuts in official interest rates will do little to spur lending in the real economy... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam moving too slowly The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during April. This is a dangerous strategy. Inflation has already hit 9.5% y/y and will probably... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates to stay on hold until 2011 The Czech National Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.00% this afternoon. But while the markets expect a first rate hike in the third quarter of this year, we do not expect interest rates to be... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One more reason to expect a sluggish recovery The deterioration in the growth outlook for the euro-zone adds to the substantial headwinds already facing the recovery in Emerging Europe. We have nudged down our 2011 GDP forecasts for Slovakia and... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates on hold until June at least Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. The economy has recovered very strongly, but inflation remains a distant threat. As a result, rates are likely to remain at their... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more cautious tone With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more cautious tone With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How quickly will Brazil raise interest rates? Last night’s decision to keep Brazilian interest rates unchanged at 8.75% was in line with our forecast but against that of the consensus, which had expected a 50bps hike. Yet the debate over the... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting confirmed that the Committee is content to sit back for now and see how the effects of its past asset purchases pan out. But while it may... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in February wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy rates by at least 50bps at the next monetary policy review on 20th April. The... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycle nears but rate hikes will be moderate Interest rate hikes in the region are drawing near. It’s a close call, but we expect the Central Bank of Brazil to stay on hold this month and begin raising interest rates in April instead. Peru and... 12th March 2010 · 1 min read
