UK Economics Weekly Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems This week’s leap in gilt yields creates more problems for the Chancellor and is an extra headwind for the economy. But it is not a crisis and the cause mostly originates overseas rather than being... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 21st January 2025, 3:00PM GMT As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 25.5% y/y in November to 24.1% y/y in December, its slowest pace in two years. With earlier falls in the pound falling out of the annual price comparison... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed worried by potential impact of Trump policy agenda After Chair Jerome Powell made a big fuss about claiming in last November’s press conference that the Fed wouldn’t speculate about what policies the incoming Trump administration will adopt, the... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: interest rates heading down in 2025 We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still... 8th January 2025 · 4 mins read
