Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last The narrowing in Brazil’s current account deficit over the past couple of years has been driven almost entirely by a recession-induced collapse in imports. As a result, the deficit is likely to widen... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households mostly well placed for policy tightening Although their finances will come under some pressure as interest rates rise, households in most advanced economies should be able to cope. Debt burdens are low by past standards and, provided that... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada already doubting itself Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin’s speech earlier this week suggested that the Bank of Canada is already beginning to doubt its earlier upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, which was behind its... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery in Thailand unlikely to lead to policy tightening Thailand’s economy has rebounded strongly over the past year, with Q3 GDP figures due to be published on Monday likely to show the country growing at its strongest pace in over four years. The... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is monetary easing doing more harm than good? Some commentators are arguing that the costs of continued loose monetary policy outweigh the benefits as house and stock prices have soared and banks’ lending margins have slumped. By contrast, we... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but December cut on the cards Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to keep interest rates on hold was not a major surprise given that the recent falls in inflation have been fairly modest. But data to be released in the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Nordic house price inflation slowing House price inflation in several Nordic economies is slowing, and in some cases sharply. In Sweden housing inflation fell to 6.7% in October, its slowest in four years. And in Stockholm, where prices... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Indonesia likely to be very gradual Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% does not mean the easing cycle is over. However, with worries growing about the strength of the rupiah, we think any... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The road back to normal monetary policy In our view, the tightening of global monetary policy in the coming years need not be all that substantial. This is largely because equilibrium interest rates have fallen a long way in the past few... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic monetary policy to be unchanged until 2019 Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending has slowed in recent months and the BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further weakening in coming months. However, brisk corporate bond issuance and record corporate profits... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Much like the consumer price inflation data released yesterday, wholesale price inflation came in above expectations in October. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but any lingering... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will inflation ever pick up again? We think the average inflation rate in advanced economies will remain lower than it was in the pre-crisis period for the foreseeable future, for several reasons. In some economies, there is more spare... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
