UK Economics Weekly 2023 – Key themes and possible surprises The three main economic themes of 2023 will be falling inflation, peaking interest rates and a recession. Together they add up to a tough year. Things would be much tougher if inflation surprised... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 22) 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More stringent price cap still not a disaster The proposed price caps for natural gas are more stringent than we had thought because the government intends to regulate prices for the foreseeable future. However, we still think that the impact on... 16th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Recession, disinflation – and eventually recovery Our 2023 prognosis may be a gloomy one, but there are reasons to expect conditions to brighten a bit by year-end. 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank eases off the brakes, but may not halt hikes until 4.50% The Bank of England followed the Fed by slowing the pace of interest rate hikes from 75 basis points (bps) in November to 50bps hike today as widely expected, which took rates from 3.00% to 3.50%. But... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (15th Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) November inflation data out of Nigeria came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate picking up to 21.5% y/y and price pressures increasing in m/m terms as well. Together with our expectation... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (15th Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle at an end Taiwan’s central bank today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.75%) but with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, we expect this hike to have marked an end to the tightening cycle. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Only one more hike to come from the Norges Bank Today’s 25bp rate increase by the Norges Bank, to 2.75%, takes it very close to the end of its tightening cycle. But we think the Bank is a long way from pivoting to loosening policy. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
