Event US Drop-In: Will the December CPI report shift the disinflation/policy debate? 12th January 2023, 3:00PM GMT After November’s positive surprise, will December’s CPI report provide more evidence that US inflationary pressures are easing – and what would that mean for the Fed’s policy calculus? Chief US...
UK Economics Chart Pack At the back of the pack The 0.3% q/q contraction in Q3 left real GDP 0.8% below its Q4 2019 pre-virus level and the UK economy lagging even further behind its major counterparts. In contrast, GDP has risen above its pre... 5th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the New Year turnaround in euro-zone bonds Although we see some near-term risk due to the still-hawkish ECB, we expect the yield of 10-year German Bunds to decline further by end-2023. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Exit Kuroda, exit YCC? The nomination of a less dovish candidate to succeed BoJ Governor Kuroda would probably signal that Yield Curve Control will soon be abandoned, though we would still expect the Bank to keep its short... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Dec.) Headline inflation in Switzerland fell in December but the rise in the core rate will be a concern for SNB policymakers. We still think that the Bank will raise rates by just 25bp in March, compared... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Event Global Drop-In – A year of disinflation 1672930800 Economists from our Global Economics service held a special discussion about the trajectory of inflation across advanced and emerging economies in 2023.
Latin America Economics Weekly Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023 This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation and further... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest sell-off in bonds sets the tone for 2023 We doubt the surge in the yields of developed market high-grade government bonds over the past week marks the start of a return to the pattern of the first three quarters of 2022. Instead, we forecast... 22nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss money supply, Swedish surveys The recent jump in money growth in Switzerland doesn't change our view that the SNB will raise interest rates only once more, to a peak of 1.25%, which would be lower than is priced into markets... 22nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global recession still doesn’t seem fully priced in We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. This Global Markets Chart Book combines our DM and EM... 22nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
