UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Hungarian central bank’s communications following its meeting today confirm that the decision not to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle was due to the recent ratcheting up of tensions between... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to cut interest rates? The EM monetary easing cycle began to broaden out late last year. Mexico’s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 29th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Africa Data Response Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards... 29th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Monetary easing in Singapore likely in April The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but weaker growth and easing concerns about inflation are likely to prompt the central bank to loosen policy in... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem... 26th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean consumer weakness, SBP to sound hawkish Korea’s GDP figures published this week show that, although the economy held up relatively well last quarter, the recovery is becoming increasingly lobsided. Exports have been strong, but domestic... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus only firing on one cylinder Large-scale liquidity injections have had little impact on economic activity recently and the upcoming RRR cut is likely to be no different. Quantitative monetary policy tools are ineffectual in an... 26th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Monetary policy tanker slowly turning The outlook for monetary policy all depends on whether the Bank of Canada is willing to act based on where it thinks shelter inflation is heading, rather than its current rate. The Bank’s... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Misinterpreting the ECB Most commentators and investors have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting signalled that an April rate cut is a near certainty. We disagree. While an April rate cut is still our base case, the risks... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
