US Economic Outlook

AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs

We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI...

29th September 2025 · 16 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

ECB "in a good place", for now...

We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than...

29th September 2025 · 28 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)

The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points...

29th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (September 2025)

September’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the evidence that euro-zone GDP growth remained subdued in Q3, while inflationary pressures are under control.

29th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation

The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting.

29th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP...

26th September 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Economic Outlook

Looser monetary policy, stronger growth

Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to...

26th September 2025 · 19 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued

Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no...

26th September 2025 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor

With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output...

26th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.50%, at its meeting today and the communications were broadly unchanged, suggesting that easing will continue at the...

25th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025)

The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway...

25th September 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate

Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a...

25th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Soft growth ahead, region to weather tariff threat

Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being...

25th September 2025 · 25 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

A tale of two recoveries

The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it...

25th September 2025 · 20 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Growth weak but stable

China’s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest, but growth has held steady this year despite US tariffs. While both exports and fiscal spending will continue to support the economy over...

24th September 2025 · 16 mins read