Europe Economics Update Deflation dangers are greater this time While a bout of deflation in the euro-zone back in 2009 proved to be short-lived and harmless, there are reasons why a new episode of falling prices would be longer-lasting and more damaging. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency turmoil not yet a risk to EM inflation As things stand, the recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies do not appear to be a major threat to EM inflation. Even those emerging economies that have borne the brunt of the currency... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data maintained the pressure on the ECB to do more to ward off deflation risks, perhaps as soon as next week. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is low inflation back for good? This year looks set to be the first since 2004 that the average inflation rate is below the 2% target. And with output still below its potential, a strong recovery is unlikely to generate price... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB loan buying plan won't dampen deflation risks Hints from Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider purchasing bank loans do not reduce the growing risks of deflation in the euro-zone. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: assessing the impact of the mining sector strikes The latest outbreak of strikes has cast a spotlight back on the problems in South Africa’s mining sector. Although it is difficult to predict how events will pan out from here, the disruption of... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indian inflation subsides as RBI considers policy reform A good harvest appears to have dampened food price inflation in India. As a result, consumer and wholesale prices both fell sharply at the end of 2013. While inflation is likely to ease further over... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's increase in underlying inflation was partly due to base year effects, which the Bank of Canada knows will prove temporary. With timely indicators still pointing to ultra low inflation, the... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 8 reasons why wage growth is poised to take off The current rates of wage and price inflation may be unusually low, but we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dwindling slack in the labour market will trigger a rise in wage inflation this... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No sign that Japan is exporting deflation Fears that yen weakness will trigger a surge of cheap Japanese exports and hence raise the risks of deflation elsewhere have, so far at least, proved wide of the mark. In practice, Japan’s firms have... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will falling commodity prices trigger deflation? We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong growth could help to keep inflation low A continuation of the UK’s recent combination of increasing growth and falling inflation would seem too good to be true. But several factors, including a return to health in the banking sector and the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation set to sink to a ten year low in 2014 Having finally fallen to the 2% target in December, there are increasingly clear signs that CPI inflation is on course to fall well below it this year. In particular, administered, food and consumer... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A brighter outlook We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
