Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (Jun.) The fall in inflation in Germany and the increase in Spain in June largely reflect temporary factors and will not alter the consensus view at the ECB that interest rates need to be increased quite... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures in the euro-zone are strong High inflation in the euro-zone isn’t all down to energy prices and global demand-supply imbalances. Domestic price pressures are also very strong, bolstering the case for tighter monetary policy. 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the surge in EM food inflation Aggregate EM food inflation has risen to its highest rate since 2008 and, while it should fall back in 2023, it’s likely to stay extremely high for at least the next four-to-six months. That will keep... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cost inflation to ease alongside new home volumes After reaching a record-high in June, we think that inflation in builders’ costs will soon start to ease. But even as cost pressures subside, construction volumes will slump as the housing market... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Hawkish turn to dampen inflation While inflation has broadened out and surprised to the upside in 2022, we maintain the view that it will fall sharply in the year ahead. For one thing, we expect commodity prices to fall. Even if we... 28th June 2022 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to keep hiking by 50bp for now The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably lift the cash rate by another 50bp in July and August before reverting to smaller 25bp hikes. However, the risks are tilted towards a prolonged period of... 28th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone core inflation will remain higher for longer We are revising up our forecast for core inflation in the euro-zone because the labour market is tighter, demand stronger and inflation expectations higher than we had anticipated. Moreover, fiscal... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US recession fears won’t deter ECB Fears about a possible US recession have prompted investors to revise their ECB interest rate expectations down this week, but we have pushed ours up to show the deposit rate peaking at 2%. While next... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Too soon to conclude inflation won’t become more persistent It’s too soon to conclude that the weak tone of this week’s news on activity means that inflation won’t become more persistent. Our proprietary measure of underlying/persistent CPI inflation rose to a... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
