Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 11th May 2023, 3:00PM BST The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11 th May. But…
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Turkey fell a bit more than expected in April, to 43.7% y/y, driven largely by a sharp decline in energy inflation, but m/m price growth remained strong and the disinflation process will... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (April) The fact that core HICP inflation edged down in April will not resolve the debate between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the ECB this week – particularly as the core rate is still close to its all-time high... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE should be talking tough on interest rates not wages The Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, came under fire this week for comments that implied businesses should stop raising their prices and workers should stop asking for pay increases . But... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly House prices in New Zealand will keep falling The RBNZ's proposal to ease loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea for New Zealand's ailing housing market. With housing still far too unaffordable for most, house prices... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Activity (Mar. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Apr. 23) The end-month data rush only adds to the dilemma the Bank of Japan is facing. While labour market conditions are now easing in earnest, underlying inflation is set to surpass 4% at the national level... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Mar. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Apr. 2023) 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Power cuts ripping through South Africa’s economy Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy... 27th April 2023 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Financial flows, not trade, leading CNH expansion The renminbi surpassed the US dollar to become the most-commonly-used currency in China’s cross-border transactions for the first time last month. Part of the increase – the part that has received... 27th April 2023 · 11 mins read
