Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ won’t hike rates any further With underlying inflation continuing to moderate, we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to follow up the ending of negative interest rates with further policy rate hikes. But while the Bank has kept its... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more... 21st March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing 11th April 2024, 3:00PM BST The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
