FX Markets Update We think that the yen will weaken further before long We expect the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar this year as 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise. 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC The reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that the US dollar will strengthen against most currencies this year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian pound’s rally to go into reverse The Egyptian pound has appreciated significantly since the devaluation in 2016 and there are signs that the strength of the currency is weighing on the country’s external competitiveness. We forecast... 15th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Lacklustre payrolls report leaves the dollar hanging In another see-saw week for FX markets, the US dollar again looks to be ending it broadly flat after the key non-farm payroll figure proved somewhat weaker than consensus expectations. Next week’s US... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we remain bearish on the renminbi We continue to think that the renminbi will end the year weaker against the US dollar and, while not an essential factor in that forecast, the recent steps by China’s policymakers to weaken the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls take centre stage again While strong data in the US have provided some support for the dollar, it remains broadly flat on the week. With economic recoveries well underway in most developed markets, focus remains on what the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
