UK Economics Weekly Pound to fall further, but it’s not an EM currency Although the slump in the pound to $1.14 earlier this week took it to its lowest level since 1985, the suggestions that it is turning into an emerging market currency are misplaced. The key difference... 9th September 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion, rupee settlement mechanism If media reports are to be believed, Indian local-currency bonds are on the cusp of being included in major bond indices for the first time. That could lead to a pick up in foreign inflows, but... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A sizeable fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in August may be further evidence of the PBOC pushing back against the slide in the renminbi. If the currency were to breach 7 to the... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external risks underline need for weaker pound Concerns over Egypt’s external position have grown due to the country’s wide current account deficit, rising short-term external debt and declining FX reserves. While some of the risks are mitigated... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Global backdrop exposing EMs with weak balance sheets Tighter global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar continue to punish a number of frontier markets with weak sovereign balance sheets. Meanwhile, worries about Turkey’s balance of... 5th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Egypt answered Egypt is facing growing external strains and downward pressure on the pound, with policymaking coming under increased scrutiny in recent weeks following the sudden resignation of central bank governor... 5th September 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Euro under renewed pressure ahead of ECB decision While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
