Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Robust US economic data spark a rebound in the greenback The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements... 3rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We have our doubts about the soft-landing rally Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think FX market volatility will edge higher from here Tension across financial markets has come down significantly since November, contributing to the US dollar’s broad-based weakness in that period. Ahead of key central bank meetings this week, this... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think the rally in risky assets is on borrowed time The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: benefits of a weaker currency emerging The further falls in the Egyptian pound over the past month will push up inflation and prompt the central bank to deliver more monetary tightening, but there are already signs that the benefits of a... 31st January 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar remains rangebound ahead of key central banks The US dollar looks set to end another week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Activity data released this week seemed consistent with resilience in European economies and near... 27th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 2nd February 2023, 3:00PM GMT China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
FX Markets Chart Pack We still think safe-haven demand will push up the USD Optimism around China’s rapid re-opening and stronger-than-expected data out of Europe have put continued pressure on the US dollar over the past month or so. In turn, we have revised down our... 26th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
