FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains rangebound as FX market calm persists The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention is in the air (again): will it work? The Riksbank’s curious communication choices around its foreign exchange reserves earlier today highlight both the challenges depreciating currencies pose to policymakers and the particular... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Q3 Macro and Markets Outlook – From resilience to recession and beyond 11th July 2023, 3:00PM BST Will activity continue to hold up, or will monetary tightening take an ever greater toll on advanced economies?
FX Markets Outlook Recessions likely to drive the dollar higher While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will Latin American equities keep outperforming? Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we... 27th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Starting gun fires for the EM easing cycle Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some... 27th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back on worsening growth outlook The US dollar has rebounded a bit this week on renewed signs that a global slowdown is underway and a growing sense that, like the Fed, most other central banks are also at, or near, the end of their... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
