Capital Daily Troubled times continue for the yen and the renminbi With more poor economic data out of China and US yields again threatening to push towards new highs, it is little wonder that the yen and the renminbi have come under renewed pressure. While we still... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Soft landing” hopes boost dollar despite soft CPI report In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira widens, South Africa solar surge, Ghana CPI Two months on from the naira’s devaluation, the gap between Nigeria’s official and black market exchange rates is widening again suggesting that the CBN is once again propping up the naira and that... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2023) After a strong run since April, inflows into EM bond and equity markets have softened markedly in the past few weeks. Inflows into India, in particular, have weakened. Turkey continues to see sizeable... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls & ratings downgrade leave the dollar adrift With the mini-meltdown in US bond markets taking centre stage over recent days, the dollar had been on the front foot for much of the week until the softish non-farm payrolls report earlier today... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What the end of tightening cycles means for the US dollar As major central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the latest evidence of US economic resilience suggests to us that the dollar is poised to appreciate over the next couple of quarters. 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Despite the easing in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9%, we think strong wage growth and the continued resilience of real GDP will mean interest rates... 1st August 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) The dollar remains broadly unchanged on the year so far, but we continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally takes... 31st July 2023 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
