Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Capital Daily What to make of the recent relief rally The rebound across major bond, equity, and currency markets over recent days provides a bit of relief for investors after a torrid few weeks. But we doubt that it will prove the start of a sustained... 26th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack A period of calm after the storm The reversal of Truss/Kwarteng’s fiscal policies and Rishi Sunak’s appointment as the UK’s new Prime Minister has ushered in a period of calm in UK financial markets after the recent storm. Indeed... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The “Fed Whisperer” & MoF strike again, dropping the dollar The dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies after an article today by the WSJ’s often well-informed Fed reporter, Nick Timiraos, suggesting some FOMC officials favour a... 21st October 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Will the UK’s new PM still be faced with a risk premium? Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more 1666857600 Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
Capital Daily We think valuation will prove a tailwind for the yen before long The yen’s latest weakness has pushed its valuation well below our estimates of “fair value”, which suggests to us it is likely to strengthen substantially over the medium term. We are resending this... 18th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weak yen will lift underlying inflation above 2% With the yen approaching 150 against the dollar, we now expect underlying inflation to climb to 2.5% by early-2023 instead of our previous forecast of 2.0%. But as this will happen when the global... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A further fiscal retreat in the UK seems only partly discounted We think that we could see a small boost for both Gilts and sterling if the UK government is forced to capitulate further on its plans for fiscal policy. 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar grinds higher as CPI reinforces Fed hawkishness The dollar is ending another volatile week in FX markets a touch higher against most major currencies. The market reaction to the upside surprise in September’s US CPI data (released yesterday) was... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update High FX-hedged Gilt yields may be short-lived The spread between the 10-year Gilt yield hedged in US dollar terms and the 10-year Treasury yield has widened dramatically of late. But given our forecasts for short-term interest rates in the UK and... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
