Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Near-term risks largely on the downside The recent more positive tone in commodity markets has been helped by a number of tailwinds that may be about to fade, if not reverse. The boost to Chinese demand from policy stimulus now already... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone? While the pound continues to be the main casualty of the vote to leave the EU, UK government bonds have come under pressure recently. Indeed, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risenby around... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) Despite a drop in August, machinery orders point to a rebound in investment spending in Q3. However, falling capital goods shipments and the deterioration in business confidence suggest that capital... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar? The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack UK equities could fare even better Since the UK’s vote to leave the EU, the shares of medium- and large-sized companies have fared better in the UK than in many other advanced economies, owing to the slide in sterling. In common... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound Markets have been shaken this week by the fallout from the Conservative Party Conference, which revealed that policymakers are set to take the UK down the “hard” Brexit route. By contrast, the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
