Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egyptian inflation dipped for a second consecutive month in October. But the 45% fall in the pound against the US dollar over the past week, as well as additional fuel subsidy cuts, means inflation is... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where next for the Egyptian pound? The 45% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar over the past week has probably taken it beyond its “fair value”, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see a small rebound in the coming days and... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks The limited immediate reaction in European financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory appears to support our view that the outcome will have few direct economic implications. If anything, though, the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies? The importance of international trade to the Nordics and Switzerland, as well as the franc’s role as a safe haven, mean that the outcome of the US election is potentially important to the region. This... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar? Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What will Egypt’s pound float mean for inflation? The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to float the pound last week, coming alongside a raft of subsidy cuts, means inflation is likely to climb to more than 20% in the coming months. The impact is... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
