Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc strength unlikely to last The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro this week, but we doubt that this will last. Meanwhile, we think that Sweden’s forthcoming general election is unlikely to have much of a... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EM external financing risks The sell-off in EM currencies has cast the spotlight onto external vulnerabilities in the emerging world, although there are important nuances to take into account. In this Update, we take a closer... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? The fresh sharp falls in the Turkish lira this week reflect growing concerns about the state of domestic policymaking and the health of the banking sector. Monetary tightening or an improvement in... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian dinar falls further, Lebanon in the spotlight The Tunisian dinar has continued to decline over the past week and we think that the currency has further to fall. However, any moves should be fairly gradual. Elsewhere, the recent widening of... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers comfortable with weaker rupee The rupee’s slide against the US dollar this year has been met with frenzied commentary in some quarters. But policymakers look comfortable with the weaker rupee. In particular, the RBI appears to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What explains the scale of recent EM currency falls? The extent of the falls in EM currencies seen since April have generally been closely correlated with the degree of countries’ external vulnerabilities. On almost all measures, Turkey and Argentina... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
