Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking, not abandoning, our key market forecasts Although we have raised some of our bearish forecasts for developed market equities, we still think that they will fall a long way in 2019 as the US economy falters. And while we have also made a... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to ease policy further but retain its grip on RMB We think the upcoming reduction in banks’ required reserve ratio will be followed by cuts to the policy rate to ensure that interbank rates fall far enough to boost lending. But despite its growing... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Italian bonds and equities likely to remain under fire Although the 10-year government bond yield in Italy has already climbed by about 60bp since plans were announced for an EU-defying budget deficit, we think that it will rise by a similar amount... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC facing RMB test, tax crackdown intensifying The People’s Bank faces a test when it sets the renminbi fix on Monday morning. With onshore markets closed for the past week, a wedge has opened between where the renminbi last stood onshore and its... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: financing from the Gulf to stave off devaluation The $10bn financial support package for Bahrain will help to prevent a currency devaluation but, as we have long expected, financing has come with strings attached. A step up in fiscal consolidation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in the Philippines to peak soon Inflation in the Philippines rose to a fresh nine-year high in September, but even if it starts to drop back over the coming months, pressure is likely to remain on the central bank (BSP) to tighten... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s markets look too sanguine on political risk The rally in Brazilian markets this week on polls showing a rise in support for right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro suggests that the political risk premium being priced in has declined... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish and Russian markets start to settle Turkish financial markets rallied this week amid signs of improving foreign relations and easing strains in the banking sector, but the latest data releases add to the evidence that the economy is... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. With the rupiah set to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, we expect at least two... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market sovereign debt fears on the rise Sovereign balance sheets in most of the large emerging economies are in reasonable shape, but those in a few of the smaller Frontier Market economies are very fragile. And investors’ concerns have... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
