DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s current account deficit to widen further Weak export growth has caused Hungary’s current account balance to swing from a large surplus in 2016 to a small deficit, which is set to widen further. One consequence is that the forint is likely to... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Just how weak is the Swedish krona? Swedish policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns that the sharp sell-off in the krona this year has gone too far. But we find little evidence to support the idea that the currency has... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currencies vulnerable to renminbi depreciation The relationship between the renminbi and other emerging market currencies has strengthened in recent years. While the response to renewed US-China tensions has been limited so far, if the renminbi... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Won weakness, election season over The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Can the party continue? Election fever has gripped Indian financial markets this week, with equities and the rupee rallying as it became increasingly clear that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP would secure another resounding... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SEK sell-off and bond market rally have further to run The recent sell-off in the Swedish krona to decade lows against the euro has been driven by a combination of a flare-up in global trade tensions and a dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance. We... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
