Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Protectionist threat from US unlikely to go away The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. But regardless of what the US Treasury decides, the... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for EM currencies We think that the recent weakness in emerging market (EM) currencies will continue during the rest of 2019, as a weaker global economy triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion. In 2020, we think that... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nobel prize money isn’t what it used to be The decades-long downward trend in the Swedish krona means that a Nobel prize in US dollar terms is worth less than half what it was in the early 1990s. With the krona set to fall further by year-end... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD resilience relative to AUD & NZD unlikely to last We expect appetite for risk and monetary policy to continue to be more important factors than commodity prices in determining the direction of the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie. With that in mind, we think... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Broad US dollar strength likely to continue for now As the outlook for the global economy grows gloomier, the US dollar is strengthening towards multi-year highs. We expect it will appreciate further as safe haven demand intensifies over coming months. 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations of US equities likely to fall back We don’t expect the valuations of US equities to continue to rise over the rest of 2019. In fact, we expect the price/earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 to fall, and this is a key reason why we... 3rd October 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
