Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2023) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been... 2nd November 2023 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Approaching peak-pessimism for clean energy equities The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the fortunes of 'safe' assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think it’s game over for AI-related equities Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative appeal of US corporate bonds and equities Although US high-yield (HY) corporate bonds are more attractively valued than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we doubt they will outperform US equities over the next couple of... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What our revised forecasts for Treasuries imply for US equities Although we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield between now and the end of 2025, we aren’t inclined to change our upbeat projection for the S&P 500 over this period. This is... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative performance of assets in China & the US We think both the recent outperformance of China’s sovereign bonds relative to those in the US and the underperformance of its equities will end – and may even reverse somewhat – in the near future... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bank equities may not recover much in the near term Big banks in the US have reported quite strong earnings in Q3 but, given our pessimistic view of the economy there, we doubt that their stocks will outperform much in the next couple of months. 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s economic momentum may help its struggling equities We think China’s improving economy may help stop the fall in the country’s stock markets, and see them outperform those of the US for a bit. 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Cyclically higher for shorter; structurally higher for longer We think equilibrium real policy rates in advanced economies will continue to rise over the next decade or so. That has profound implications for government bond yields and risky asset valuations. 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era 1698755400 What will a world of structurally higher interest rates look like? How will central bank behaviour change in the coming years? What will this mean for market returns?
Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Could earnings give the S&P 500 a lift? We don’t expect a rise in earnings expectations to give the S&P 500 much of a near-term boost, but think the picture is more positive further ahead. 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Q3 data dump and the economic and policy outlook 1697616000 Economists from our China and financial markets teams held an online briefing about the Q3 economic data release and outlook for the Chinese economy and markets.