India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s unusual about this bubble and whether it matters Unlike most bubbles, this one hasn’t been accompanied, at least so far, by obvious signs of high and rising leverage. On the other hand, the share of funds invested in ‘passive’ products is now much... 20th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Can the party keep going for Japan’s equities? We think Japan’s stock market will take a turn for the worse before long, weighed by what we expect will be a rebound in the yen. And while that nonetheless could mean decent returns in US dollar... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble may be far from bursting The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months. We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future may be brighter for EM equities We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to... 9th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the latest rally in China’s equities last? Policy support for Chinese equities may facilitate a near-term rebound, but investors probably need to be convinced that the government's attitude towards the private sector has shifted if there is to... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t see the post-payrolls surge in yields as an omen We doubt today’s rise in Treasury yields will be sustained, given our dovish view of the Fed. And we expect US equities to have another banner year. 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the latest batch of big tech earnings We expect big tech to drive the S&P 500 higher still in 2024, despite a mixed performance from the shares of most of the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ over the last ten days in the wake of a flurry of... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the recent rebound in REIT prices tell us? At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read