DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Are AI equity valuations justified? The sky-high valuations of some touted winners from AI have given rise to claims that their share prices have risen to unsustainably high levels. Is there anything we can learn from the dot com era? 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields closing the gap Our forecast that in late 2024 and 2025 the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than investors expect suggests that UK gilt yields will fall and close the current gap with US yields... 25th July 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US bank stocks may start catching up, but not just yet Given our view that economic growth will disappoint, we doubt that the positive mood accompanying US banks’ earnings reports will endure over the rest of 2023. But when the outlook brightens, we... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US stock market’s been flying high, but has it earned it? As the second quarter US reporting season gets into full swing, it’s easy to lose sight of the big picture: the peak-to-trough drawdown in earnings per share (EPS) from last year has not only been... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market optimism may have gone too far All is well in the US economy – at least according to financial markets. But we think investors are underestimating the chance of an economic slowdown. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China: no country for old (or young) equity bulls? With yet more disappointing news about China’s economic rebound, it is worth taking stock of the headwinds facing the country’s equity market. We think Chinese equities will hold up better than other... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update When & why the stock market has ridden out a recession The stock market in the US has rarely rallied in recessions that have taken place there since the mid-1850s. Our forecast is that it will take a knock amid a recession in H2 2023 before powering ahead... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are other markets right to ignore oil’s rally? Equity, bond, and FX investors seem to have shrugged off the recent rise in oil prices. We wouldn’t be surprised if that continued even if prices rose further. 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update How markets might fare as US disinflation continues June’s soft US CPI print seems to have given investors renewed hope that inflation could fall back to normal levels without the economy slowing too much, if at all. We continue to think that the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why don’t TIPS yields matter anymore? Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed... 13th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity market winners in the age of AI Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read