Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RIP YCC: What next for Japanese and global markets? The Bank of Japan seems to have effectively ended yield curve control without making a big splash in financial markets, but we wouldn’t rule out further effects – on Japan’s markets and those around... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Are AI equity valuations justified? The sky-high valuations of some touted winners from AI have given rise to claims that their share prices have risen to unsustainably high levels. Is there anything we can learn from the dot com era? 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields closing the gap Our forecast that in late 2024 and 2025 the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than investors expect suggests that UK gilt yields will fall and close the current gap with US yields... 25th July 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read