Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Equities in EM Asia ex-China may keep holding up well Equities in Emerging Asia outside China have largely outperformed their peers in other Emerging Markets (EMs) since the pandemic started. We think that they will hold up better during the global stock... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will valuations hinder AI-related stocks’ performance? Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings from Nvidia have extended this week’s relief rally in stock markets. While we think that US equities could falter over the rest of the year as growth disappoints, we... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the IT sector’s recent stumble The S&P 500 IT sector has struggled this month amid rising bond yields and waning enthusiasm for AI. While we think the sector may fall further this year in absolute terms, we still project it to... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What Country Garden wilting means for China’s equities We don’t think the ongoing troubles in China’s property sector mark the beginnings of a financial crisis, but do expect them to be a drag on returns from the country’s stock market over time. 14th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read