UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Mortgage approvals fell in February, the first month-on-month fall since August. With a sharp rise buy-to-let unlikely and buyer demand growth paused, we expect only modest growth in mortgage... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices made a strong start to 2017, with a 0.6% m/m gain in January. That pushed the annual rate up to a 31-month high of 5.9%. Very tight market conditions suggest that price growth will... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Feb.) The recovery in mortgage approvals stalled in February. Looking ahead, while we expect lending to rise in 2017, a sluggish outlook for buy-to-let, combined with subdued levels of buyer interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly House price surge unlikely to boost construction Residential property prices in Japan have risen unusually fast since the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, led by an investment-driven surge in condominium prices. But there are signs... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Good weather and a lack of existing homes for sale gave the new homes sector a boost in February, generating a robust 6.1% m/m rise in sales. A shortage of cheaper, starter homes will weigh on sales... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Official house price index is overstating price pressures Despite some very strong readings from the official index, there is little evidence elsewhere to suggest that the price of newbuild homes has surged. Rather, the strong data likely reflect a timing... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rising interest rates - how high would be too high? Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) A lack of inventory weighed on existing home sales in February, which contracted by 3.7% m/m. With little chance of a sustained rise in the number of existing homes for sale over the next year, sales... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jan.) House price growth accelerated in January according to the official index. But recent revisions to the index have all been downwards, suggesting that today’s data should be interpreted with care. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q4) The acceleration in house price inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has undoubtedly continued into the start of this year and will remain a thorn in the side of the Reserve Bank of Australia... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will the rental market react to rising interest rates? Other things equal, higher Treasury yields means investors will require a higher return from property. Some investors may therefore start easing back on acquisitions, putting downward pressure on... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the sustainable level of London office rents risen? Office rents in central London have never been higher. Even in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, they are well above the levels which appear to have been sustainable in the past. However, since the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
