Japan Chart Pack Will the Nikkei continue to outperform? The Nikkei is near its highest in 25 years, buoyed by a 200% rise in net profits since PM Abe returned to power five years ago. Looking ahead, we expect the yen to weaken to 120 by the end of next... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How tight are mortgage lending standards? Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The decline in the national composite house price index in October led to a further slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation to 10.0%, from 11.4%. The recent slump in home sales, increases... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) House price inflation accelerated in September. But initial estimates on the official index tend to be revised down in later months. And with house prices high, as well as few signs of a revival in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) While official figures show a small deceleration in industrial output growth last month, our own measure points to a much shaper decline. Meanwhile, the are signs in the rest of today’s data that the... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Annual house price growth has peaked The rise in annual house price growth to a three-year high of 6.1% in August raises the prospect that our forecast for a 6% gain by the end of the year will prove too conservative. But, with credit... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates and lack of stock hits activity Mortgage interest rate are rising gradually which, coupled with a lack of inventory, has meant mortgage applications for home purchase resumed their downward trend in October. That implies home sales... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Annual house price inflation came in at 7% in September according to CoreLogic, as tight market conditions put further upward pressure on home values. However, higher mortgage interest rates, falling... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing and the economy The stagnation in house prices in Australia in recent months is a big deal as it means housing won’t support the economy by as much as in recent years. The plunge in the number of home sales will... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lenders will be quick to pass on today’s rate rise Today’s rise in Bank Rate is likely to be passed on to borrowers in full and in fairly short order. Admittedly, thanks to the popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years, many borrowers will... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in applications for refinance in October, and low inventory levels are continuing to hit demand for purchase applications. As a result, total mortgage... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) House prices are growing at low single-digit rates. With house prices already high, a rate hike imminent and banks looking increasingly cautious, we think price growth will stay around 2% in 2018. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The marginal dip in the seasonally-adjusted homeownership rate in the third quarter is another indication of the impact of low inventory on the housing market. Indeed, the homeowner vacancy remains... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth exceeded 6% for the first time in over three years in August, even as mortgage applications for home purchase have edged down. Prices are being... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
