US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) According to Case-Shiller, annual house price growth in November edged up slightly to 6.2%, but we doubt it will rise much further. Buyers are staying away due to the lack of homes for sale and, with... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Mortgage approvals slumped in December, supporting our view that the sharp easing in house price pressures seen over the last year is here to stay. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Both remortgaging and house purchase lending fell sharply in December, marking a downbeat end to 2017. But there is little evidence to suggest these falls are the start of a sharp downward trend. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales dropped by 3.6% m/m in December, reversing much of November’s surprise jump. That left sales up a marginal 1.1% over 2017, and just 2.6% over the past two years. The lack of... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Nov.) The FHFA reported a moderate 0.4%m/m rise in house prices in November, and the annual growth rate is now at a 10-month low. Despite tight market conditions, active housing demand is being constrained... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A change to our house price coverage We are making a change to our regular coverage of house prices, and will now provide a data response on the FHFA house price index, rather than the CoreLogic index. That change reflects both practical... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has the official HPI been fixed? Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QM change won’t turbo-charge the mortgage market A proposed change to the Dodd-Frank Act will make it easier for small banks to originate mortgages that meet the Qualified Mortgage standard. In theory, that could lead to the return of mortgages... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Housing starts had a poor end to 2017. An 8.2% m/m drop in December meant starts finished the year 6% down compared to a year ago. The single-family sector drove the contraction in starts. But, at the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
