Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Putting the housing downturn into context The fall in house prices seen so far is small by the standards of the average Australian downturn. But a further tightening in credit criteria may contribute to it morphing into the deepest and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Affordability at 10-year low, but no need to panic Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Construction to drag down GDP growth Despite the recent stabilisation of some housing market indicators, steep falls in new home sales this year imply that construction activity will drop sharply over the coming 12 months. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as buyers stay away Housing market activity has come off the boil, as rising interest rates, a lack of inventory and concerns that house prices are too high have all weighed on buying sentiment. Both new and existing... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) According to the Halifax index, house price growth accelerated in July. But at 3.3% per-year, prices are still rising at a sluggish pace. And looking ahead, with prices already very high and interest... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Some respite for the housing market The housing market enjoyed a little respite in June. The decline in buyer enquiries paused, new sales instructions rose and mortgage approvals recovered from their recent slide. But with house prices... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lending, house prices and retail sales With the housing market slowdown in danger of morphing into the deepest and longest in Australia’s modern history, we doubt that the recent resilience of household spending will last. The risk is that... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rising rates will keep housing in the doldrums The vast majority of existing mortgage borrowers should be well placed to deal with the latest rise in Bank Rate. But a rising cost of borrowing will further constrain demand from new buyers, ensuring... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (July) Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase fell back in July, continuing the recent run of easing demand. The drop in mortgage interest rates seen at the beginning of the month proved... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) House price inflation edged up in July. But we doubt that the market has gained a new lease of life. Indeed, with interest rates set to rise imminently, we expect house price growth to slow over the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the RBA and some other analysts sit up and take notice. What’s more, the worst is yet to come. Our relatively bearish forecast that prices... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) The May Case-Shiller house price index provided further evidence that the housing market is losing steam. The 0.4% m/m rise meant annual house price inflation held steady at 6.4%. High house prices... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) House purchase mortgage approvals rose for a second month in June – by a respectable 1.4% m/m. But demand is still weak, and further growth in lending will be constrained by high house prices and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Life without the booms The end of Australia’s housing boom and New Zealand’s migration boom mean that economic growth in both countries will probably fall short of expectations over the next couple of years. Australia may... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Landlord sell-off driving fall in instructions The end of the BTL boom has contributed to reduced liquidity in the rental market, making it harder for tenants to find a home. With no sign of a BTL revival in sight, we suspect the current slowdown... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
