US Housing Market Update A change to our house price coverage We are making a change to our regular coverage of house prices, and will now provide a data response on the FHFA house price index, rather than the CoreLogic index. That change reflects both practical... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has the official HPI been fixed? Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QM change won’t turbo-charge the mortgage market A proposed change to the Dodd-Frank Act will make it easier for small banks to originate mortgages that meet the Qualified Mortgage standard. In theory, that could lead to the return of mortgages... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Housing starts had a poor end to 2017. An 8.2% m/m drop in December meant starts finished the year 6% down compared to a year ago. The single-family sector drove the contraction in starts. But, at the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) The official index recorded house price growth of 5.1% y/y in November – faster than the other indices. But, consistent with elsewhere, prices in London performed the worst of all the regions. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Rising rates set to keep market in check Our forecast for an improving economic backdrop will come hand-in-hand with rising interest rates. As a result, improving real wages and sentiment will be countered by higher mortgage costs. That will... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The small gain in national house prices in December, boosted largely by Vancouver, didn’t prevent a further slowdown in the rate of annual house price inflation to 9.1%, from 9.2%. The recent slump in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will apartment rental growth slow further in 2018? A multifamily construction boom during 2015 and 2016 has boosted apartment vacancy rates, and pushed rental growth to a six-year low. But developers are already scaling back multifamily construction... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage credit availability edged up in Q4, while the supply of credit for commercial property held steady. But while conditions for households are expected to improve further in Q1, commercial... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homes sales enjoy strong end to the year Home sales enjoyed a strong end to the year, with both new and existing sales now close to 11-year highs. But that boost to sales was not accompanied by any rise in mortgage applications for home... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth ended 2017 at 2.7% – broadly in line with our forecast. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates due to rise further this year, we think house price... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack No sign of housing market pick-up The past month has brought no evidence that the current housing market soft patch is coming to an end. Mortgage approvals are down compared to a year ago, while house price growth remains at low... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
