Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The rebound in the RICS survey balances in February suggest that home sales were sustained at a very high level even before further policy support was announced in the Budget. Strong sales and limited... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices are now surging which poses an upside risk to our forecast that prices will rise 10% between January and December this year. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s housing focus could bring forward rate hikes We doubt that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new obligation to consider house prices will drastically change the outlook for monetary policy. But given that house price growth remains very strong... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) New home sales rose for the second consecutive month in January to 923,000 annualised. But rising mortgage interest rates and tight inventory point to a slowdown over 2021. Indeed, mortgage... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise when policy support is withdrawn Mortgage arrears have remained very low, casting doubt on our view that we will see a substantial rise in forced selling later this year. But new evidence from the Resolution Foundation shows that... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) The house price boom continued in December, with month-on-month gains exceeding 1.0% on the FHFA measure for the seventh consecutive month. However, rising mortgage interest rates will weigh on... 23rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales managed to eke out a small gain in January, even as inventory fell to new record lows. But the lack of supply means activity will fall back to earth later in 2021, reinforced by... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The further slowdown in the monthly pace of gains in January suggests house price inflation will soon peak at a little more than 10%. 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update High unemployment to benefit homebuilders An elevated unemployment rate, alongside some relaxation in immigration restrictions, will help ease labour shortages in the residential sector this year. Admittedly, not all parts of the economy are... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Buyer demand appears resilient to end of tax break There are clear signs that the end of the stamp duty holiday is causing the housing market to slow. In January the RICS reported a sharp drop in new buyer enquiries and seller instructions, and house... 16th February 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) The January RICS survey suggests that the housing market has embarked on the next leg of its journey through the pandemic. The lockdown and the looming end of the stamp duty holiday have caused a... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s house prices will keep rising strongly The RBNZ is responding to the recent surge in house prices by reimposing and later tightening LVR restrictions on mortgage borrowers. The impact of LVR restrictions on the housing market has been... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
