China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) China’s GDP growth jumped to a record high in y/y terms last quarter. But this was entirely due to a weaker base for comparison from last year’s historic downturn. In q/q terms, growth dropped back... 16th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The extension of the stamp duty holiday has given the ongoing housing market boom renewed momentum and could push house price inflation up from 6% in March well into double figures by the summer. 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: time to worry about rising property prices? Rapidly rising property prices have become a big political issue in Korea, but they don’t pose a significant threat to the economy. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House prices are surging but forward indicators somewhat mixed and we suspect the pace of price growth will ease in the second half of this year. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family starts fell for the second consecutive month in February, as winter storms and record high lumber prices disrupted construction. But as those constraints ease, housing starts will climb... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The rebound in the RICS survey balances in February suggest that home sales were sustained at a very high level even before further policy support was announced in the Budget. Strong sales and limited... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices are now surging which poses an upside risk to our forecast that prices will rise 10% between January and December this year. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s housing focus could bring forward rate hikes We doubt that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new obligation to consider house prices will drastically change the outlook for monetary policy. But given that house price growth remains very strong... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) New home sales rose for the second consecutive month in January to 923,000 annualised. But rising mortgage interest rates and tight inventory point to a slowdown over 2021. Indeed, mortgage... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise when policy support is withdrawn Mortgage arrears have remained very low, casting doubt on our view that we will see a substantial rise in forced selling later this year. But new evidence from the Resolution Foundation shows that... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
