UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2015 Q2) Mortgage lending for house purchase grew strongly in Q2, particularly in the buy-to-let sector. And despite signs that mortgage rates might be bottoming out, high levels of employment and rising real... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property market should shrug off equity price falls When equity prices collapsed in 2007, property prices and sales also collapsed. This precedent has led to concerns that the latest stock market rout may spark a sharp fall in property demand. These... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) After a strong June reading, the Halifax reported a 0.6% m/m fall in house prices during July. This brought underlying price growth down, although it remains at a respectable 2.4%. House price... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The upward trend in mortgage interest rates seems to be holding back mortgage applications. However, provided the labour market continues to strengthen as we expect, looser credit conditions and... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) According to Nationwide, house prices grew by 0.4% m/m in July. Annual price growth picked up to 3.5%, a signal that the slowdown in price growth seen over the past year is coming to an end. Prices... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shortage nothing more than a myth A housing shortage has been determined by the housing industry as the key explanation for record high house prices. While this interpretation appears to have caught on in certain circles, the broader... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jun.) Activity data from Chile were stronger than expected in June but, as a result of softer figures for April and May, we still think that GDP growth in Q2 will be weaker than in Q1. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Looser credit conditions will support mortgage recovery Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in June, after suffering an unexpected fall during May. And while approvals still remain lower than in April, a strong economy and favourable mortgage market... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key housing markets won't defy gravity for much longer The Vancouver and Toronto housing markets appear to be enjoying a revival of late, in contrast to most other markets in Canada. But with labour market conditions set to deteriorate this year and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller (Q2/May) Today’s housing market data suggest that the recent slowdown in house price growth may now be going into reverse. They also support our view that rental value growth could soon reach a 30-year high. 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jun.) According to the Land Registry, house prices rose 1.1% m/m in June, their largest monthly gain in nearly two years. With interest rates at record lows, a shortage of homes for sale on the market and... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New home sales unexpectedly declined in June, and have struggled to make much progress since the start of the year. However, the recent growth in existing sales shows that housing demand is... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
