China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations improve but all sectors still overvalued A sharp increase in property yields in Q4 helped European property valuations improve for the first time in two years. That said, spreads over alternative assets remained very narrow by past standards... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a modest upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by an uplift to the capital value view. That looks to reflect the larger-than-expected fall in... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Although the decline in house prices slowed markedly in February, we’re not convinced the worst is over. As such, we expect house prices to fall by another 6% before the year is up. 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Despite a sixth consecutive month of falling house prices in December, affordability was still stretched even before the renewed rise in mortgage rates. As a result, it is likely that prices will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Decarbonising UK residential – the biggest challenge? Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are the main benchmark for environmental standards in UK housing. There is evidence that they are improving efficiency in new-builds and new regulations will... 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values fall further The rise in prime property yields accelerated in Q4. Despite gains in all-property rents in most markets, this meant capital values fell across all sectors. Declines were particularly sharp in offices... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise, but still some way to go this year Q4 property valuation scores rose from their Q3 troughs, as equity earnings yields fell and property yields all increased. Even so, that left all major sectors still looking overvalued, suggesting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental surge lifts capital values CEE yields continued to rise in Q4, but very strong rental growth prevented all-property capital values from falling for a second successive quarter. This turnaround was driven by retail and... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Buyers respond to higher rates by borrowing less Higher interest rates have begun to reduce the size of mortgage that buyers take out. As two-thirds of buyers rely on a mortgage, that will decrease most buyers’ budgets and put further downward... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
