US Commercial Property Chart Pack Re-pricing set to dominate rental growth differentials Data for the fourth quarter showed a widespread deterioration in occupier demand in all three sectors. This was worst in some of the big six and West coast metros, with markets like Phoenix, Portland... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Price correction gathering pace While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values on record Capital value falls accelerated in Q4 as euro-zone all-property yields surged higher. And although rents increased in both offices and industrial, the outsized jump in yields meant euro-zone all... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Sign of a property turnaround are building Data published this week showed that property prices stabilised in January following a record 16-month decline. This adds to growing signs that the housing market is embarking on a cyclical rebound... 17th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the worst behind us? This week’s data contained encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are fading, and the risks to our view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5% this year now lie to the downside. The January MSCI data... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Few signs of market bottoming out The survey data suggest that the modest decline in mortgage rates since October falls a long way short of what would be required for house prices to bottom out. The fall in market interest rates since... 16th February 2023 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update A tough year ahead for Prague retail Prague retail saw an unexpected rental uplift at the end of 2022, ending three years of decline. But we think that will be a false dawn and expect that a subdued consumer outlook will combine with... 13th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office slowdown underway Slowing jobs growth, a tech-driven slump in net absorption and a strong supply pipeline underline our view that Dublin prime office rents will fall slightly this year. This would mark a sharp... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
