US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey indicated confidence fell further in the opening months of the year but remains substantially above the lows seen during the height of the pandemic. However, we expect sentiment to... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) After a weak end to 2022, surveyors reported that occupier demand was essentially flat in Q1. All sectors saw an improvement and that suggests take-up will pick-up in Q2. That said, rental and capital... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2023) Total returns of -1.8% q/q in Q1 reflected a much smaller markdown in values than in Q4. But, looking ahead, we remain convinced that the strains being felt by many investors will drive sharper price... 26th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the detailed Q1 GDP breakdown The Q1 GDP figures left little doubt that China's economy is rebounding more quickly than most had anticipated. The detailed sectoral breakdown published a day later received less attention but... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about euro-zone yields? Listed markets in Europe have been surprisingly downbeat about prospects for real estate relative to other regions. While we think that largely reflects mis-pricing in equity markets, it provides a... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to fall further As mortgage lenders’ net interest margins are already very narrow, the increase in market interest rates over the past fortnight means that the decline in mortgage rates from their spike after the... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A silver lining for hotels? Exhausted household savings and an upcoming recession is set to hit hotel demand over the next year or so. However, as happened in the aftermath of the GFC, some stretched households may decide to... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP rebounded more quickly than expected in Q1 thanks to a rapid return to normality following last year’s virus disruptions. With consumer confidence on the mend and credit growth accelerating, there... 18th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) March’s net commercial real estate lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
