UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to outdo higher taxes A fall in mortgage rates from 4.5% now to around 3.6% in late 2025 may mean that, despite increases in taxes in the Budget on 30th October, house prices rise by 5.0% in 2025 rather than the consensus... 22nd October 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar needs to keep a watchful eye over banking risks The boom in bank lending in Qatar in the 2010s has unwound so far in a relatively orderly manner. Banks are well capitalised and are able to absorb a far greater rise in non-performing loans than we... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment performance to top consensus estimates Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the... 21st October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Baby steps to support housing won’t drive a turnaround While the Ministry of Housing introduced no significant new measures and gave little additional detail on plans to support the property sector during Thursday's press conference, it did announce an... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2024) The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch logistics will continue to outperform Dutch prime logistics rent growth is set to be among the highest in the region over the next few years. That reflects both strong prospects for leasing, thanks to a bright economic outlook and greater... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024) Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update All signs point to capital value recovery Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Flagging previous climate risk notes In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US. 14th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should... 12th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail ‘flight to quality’ limited to shopping centres In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
