Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that, over Q1 as a whole, the sector stagnated, adding to the evidence that GDP growth in Q1 was quite soft. But there are a number... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Life still left in Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s economy has been losing momentum for several quarters, but it’s premature to think that the recovery is now over. Indeed, the conditions seem to be in place for growth to strengthen again in... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the real? The sharp drop in the Brazilian real over the past month has, in our view, been driven more by local developments – including growing uncertainty over the outcome of October’s elections – than it has... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The weak Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for April, coming alongside the stabilisation of the real in the past few days, means COPOM is likely to go ahead with another 25bp reduction in the Selic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Mar.) Brazilian inflation dipped again in March but our sense is that policymakers will start to focus less on the incoming inflation data and more on rising political risks and the associated drop in the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure confirmed that the sector made a very weak start to the year and, barring a surge in output in March, industry probably dragged... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Brazil came in as expected in February, but its failure to pick up over the past couple of months gives Copom the green light to lower interest rates again later this month. We now expect... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: living on borrowed time We don’t think that the apparent collapse of pension reform in Brazil will have much of a bearing on the economy’s performance over the next 6-12 months. Even so, the current pension system – and by... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will politics put an end to the rally in Brazil’s equities? Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Brazilian inflation was unchanged in the first half of February, but we still expect the headline rate to drift up over the course of this year. Our sense is that this should prevent Copom from... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
