Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: what’s at stake? Brazil’s incoming government has given little detail about its proposed (and much-needed) reforms to the country’s pension system. But stabilising the public debt ratio would require reform at the... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial growth in October, of 0.2% m/m, provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is likely to be weaker than Q3’s outturn of 0.8% q/q. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The sharper-than-expected 1.8% m/m contraction in Brazilian industrial production in September won’t prevent the economy as a whole from strengthening in Q3. But it reinforces concerns about the scale... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB on hold until Bolsonaro’s reform plans take shape The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting hints that Copom is waiting to see if president-elect Jair Bolsonaro can deliver on his reform promise when he takes office at... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How bad is Brazil’s fiscal problem? President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has touched on all the right areas needed to get Brazil’s public debt ratio off its current unsustainable trajectory. In this Focus, we answer five questions in order to... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro’s victory: three things to watch now Comments from Brazil’s president-elect suggesting that the central bank should target the exchange rate have made headlines today but his post-election comments otherwise point to orthodox... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in September, has already exceeded the BCB’s newly-published forecasts. And, taken together with comments from policymakers that hint at the start of a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
