Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the recent rally marks a new dawn for Japan’s equities We don’t think that the recent strong gains in Japan’s equity market mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag other markets over the rest of... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has corporate Japan cleaned up its act? Many commentators have pinned the recent outperformance of Japan’s stock market on the stronger focus by Japanese firms to maximise shareholder value. But while those efforts showed some success in... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The unemployment rate reversed the sharp rise in March last month and the job-to-applicant ratio stabilised, but a recession in H2 should still see the unemployment rate peak at 3% by year-end. 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth too low to sustain higher inflation There’s little reason to expect above-target inflation to be sustained in Japan. Wage growth remains far below the levels seen in other developed economies and remains far too low to generate second... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (May. 2023) Tokyo inflation fell to 3.2% in May largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and energy ticked up due to faster gains in “core” goods prices. We still expect... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation set to fall as input cost pressures ease Most of the recent acceleration in services inflation reflects pass-through of higher goods prices. While firms have become more willing to pass on higher input costs, we still think that sluggish... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Mar. 2023) We already know that business investment rose despite a plunge in capital goods shipments last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger... 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read