Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) The fall in manufacturing PMI readings in June’s flash estimates suggest the recession we’re expecting in the second half might have already begun this month. Meanwhile, the steady fall in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2023) Nationwide inflation played out largely in line with the timelier Tokyo CPI data in May. Headline inflation fell largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and... 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Female participation rate hasn’t peaked yet The female participation rate has surged over the past decade but more favourable attitudes among women towards paid employment suggest that it will keep rising for a while yet. Asia Drop-In (22 nd... 19th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain ultra-loose The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings and assessment of the economy unchanged today. As inflation is unlikely to be sustained at or above target for the foreseeable future, we’re still... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strength in car exports unlikely to last Car exports have rebounded in recent months as supply shortages have eased, but Japan’s car industry is facing major headwinds as it is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed for an eighth consecutive month in May as both import prices and volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders rebounded in April, but that still points to a fall in... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 2023) & Machinery Orders (Apr. 2023) 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The electric vehicle threat to Japan’s car industry Japan’s carmakers face an existential threat from the emergence of cheap EV exports from China. Even in a benign scenario where carmakers eventually jump on the EV bandwagon, we suspect that they... 8th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2023) Wage growth fell in April due to a fall in overtime pay and mostly stagnant bonus payments, while regular pay growth rebounded. But labour market conditions should loosen in the second half on account... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read