Japan Economics Update Weak yen won’t provide much boost to economy Last year’s sharp weakening of the yen hasn’t boosted goods exports, not least because most exports are invoiced in foreign currency and exporters haven’t slashed prices. Instead, it has lifted... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity market winners in the age of AI Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Machinery Orders (May 2023) The fall in “core” machinery orders in May points to a significant fall in spending on machinery and transport equipment, contradicting more upbeat capital goods shipments data. We’re going with a... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 11th July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Intervention time: what next for the yen and the renminbi? China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited fallout from Chinese export curbs China’s curbs on exports of germanium and gallium probably won’t make much of a dent on Japan’s economy. There would be a much bigger impact if China were to restrict rare earth exports as well. But... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q2 2023) Today’s Tankan survey showed a turnaround for the flagging manufacturing sector, while the services sector has become even more bullish. And the rise in business condition readings across all... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update Friend-shoring picking up pace beneath the surface At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains dovish despite strong inflation Underlying inflation hit a 42-year high in May and the Bank of Japan will need to push back the timing by when it expects inflation to fall back below its 2% target at its upcoming meeting in July... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read