Asset Allocation Update What rate hikes in Japan could mean for global markets We now expect the Bank of Japan to hike its policy rate – for the first time in sixteen years – next January. While we think global markets are generally braced for such an event, there’s a clear risk... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-in: Japan Special – Will the Bank of Japan finally abandon easy policy? 1695884400 It’s a sign of our inflationary times that even the Bank of Japan could soon consider raising interest rates in what would be the first such move in 16 years.
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the renminbi, the yen & FX intervention While policymakers’ efforts to prop up the renminbi and the yen alone are not enough to generate a lasting turnaround, they will probably do enough to buy time until US interest rate expectations and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike policy rate in January Following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, we now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate for the first time in sixteen years in January. The Bank could call time on Yield Curve Control at the... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PBOC & BoJ to markets: You shall not pass? Another step up in the Chinese and Japanese authorities’ efforts to prop up their faltering currencies has given the renminbi and the yen a bit of a boost today. Alone, these measures are unlikely to... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen weakening to a one-year low against the dollar, the chances that the authorities will intervene to stem its slide have risen. That would probably have little success if interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s equities may step down from the spotlight soon We doubt the strong gains in Japan’s equity market this year mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag the US market over the next couple of... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan experiencing greedflation? At first glance, the rise in corporate profits to a record-high last quarter suggests that greedy firms are driving up consumer prices. However, we still think that most of the increase in inflation... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates as soon as early-2024 The RBA retained its tightening bias when it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10% today. However, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter of next year... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read