Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High global stocks to weigh on wheat and corn prices Elevated levels of global end-stocks have prompted us to review our price forecasts. We have downgraded our end-2019 corn price forecast but left the price outlook for wheat and soybean unchanged for... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little festive cheer for commodities The prices of most commodities, including oil, traded in a narrow range this week, at least until Friday when weak economic data out of China prompted a synchronised fall in prices. We suspect that... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Sugar on a real high, but oil prices slump Commodity prices, including oil, fell on concerns about softer economic growth and some appreciation of the US dollar. We expect a weaker demand outlook to continue to weigh on the prices of the more... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Politics and policy may take centre stage Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand to boost corn prices The USDA’s latest projections have not changed our view that ample supply will remain a problem for the grains and soybean markets. That being said, a fall in corn stocks, coupled with the potential... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Sweeter times ahead for sugar The price of sugar has dropped sharply in response to a supply glut, making it one of the worst performing commodities so far this year. In this Commodities Watch, we outline some recent trends in the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities join in “relief” rally The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil bucks the negative trend Most commodity prices fell in August on the back of ongoing global trade tensions and worries over an economic slowdown in China. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
