India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to stand pat, for now OPEC+ is set to meet next Tuesday, when we expect the group to agree to continue with its incremental increases in production through to July. We think it unlikely that the group will address the... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices have further to fall We think that the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans will decline over the next six months owing to a rebound in global supply and slower demand growth in China. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rally in metals prices looking increasingly stretched Commodity prices pushed higher yet again this week. Most notably, the seemingly unassailable climb in industrial metals prices saw the price of copper push above $10,000 per tonne for the first time... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The demand outlook remains uncertain It was another good week for commodity prices, with the exception of precious metals. Somewhat better-than-expected Q1 GDP and survey data, particularly in the euro-zone, was one factor fuelling... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Investor-led rally running out of road Following a spectacular rebound from pandemic-induced lows, we continue to expect that most commodity prices will be falling again by end-2021. Although growth in demand should be strong as the global... 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Corn price rally to run out of steam The ongoing revival in global demand growth together with constrained global supply means that the price of corn is likely to hold onto most of its recent gains for some time. That said, we think that... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices to climb higher, despite recent setbacks Strong growth in industrial demand helped push up the prices of energy commodities used primarily in power generation last month, but oil prices slipped back. We continue to expect average energy... 12th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Mixed economic outlook poses a quandary for prices It was a relatively quiet week in commodities markets, with weakness in the US dollar giving agricultural commodities, in particular, a bit of a lift. We think markets could struggle to find a clear... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodity prices to take a breather in the near term A rise in new coronavirus infections in many parts of the world, including Europe and India, weighed on investor sentiment in commodity markets in March. However, all the signs point to a rapid... 7th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Focus The anatomy of a supercycle History shows that supercycles are usually demand-driven, and that the performance of individual commodity prices has varied hugely both within and between past supercycles. In addition, supercycles... 17th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Little chance of a supercycle in agriculturals Agricultural prices are currently trading near multi-year highs, but we doubt that a supercycle is underway or will occur anytime soon. Instead, we think that agricultural prices will fall over both... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices making up for lost time It was a relatively two-sided affair in commodities markets this week. On the one hand, oil prices rose on the back of greater-than-expected output restraint announced by OPEC+. And on the other hand... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Investor optimism may prove short-lived Most commodity prices rose in February encouraged by falling COVID-19 infections and the vaccine rollout, which point to a recovery in economic activity and higher commodities demand later in the year... 1st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of China’s agricultural “buying spree” In this Commodities Watch, we consider the impact that the recent surge in Chinese agricultural commodity imports has had on prices and whether it will be sustained. In our view, the rapid growth in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
