Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A looming fall in gas exports adds to concerns in Russia Because Russia’s export gas price seems to follow oil prices with a six to nine month lag, the recent fall in oil prices has not yet fully fed into Russia’s gas export earnings. Admittedly, gas... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) Working day effects exacerbated the weakness in February’s activity data from Russia but don’t change the bigger picture of an economy sliding deeper into recession. Consumers are still bearing the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank cuts rates further Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100bps appears to have been driven by the stabilisation of the ruble over the past month. Barring a renewed... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rally largely explained by oil rebound The ruble has sold off today but this follows strong gains in recent weeks that made it the best performing EM currency in February. There are several factors that could explain the rebound in the... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe able to weather any disruption in Russian gas supplies We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Jan.) The release of January’s activity data for Russia was delayed by two hours today but when they finally arrived they brought further evidence that consumers are bearing the brunt of the economy’s... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier and investment indicators fall sharply in Moscow A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
