Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Russian ruble “extremely undervalued”? We are not convinced by the Russian finance ministry’s claim on Wednesday morning that the ruble is “extremely undervalued”. After all, Russia has undergone an enormous deterioration in its terms of... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The raft of activity data from Russia for November contains some signs that investment has started to weaken but in general the picture is still of an economy that is stagnating rather than collapsing... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global impact of Russia’s crisis (revisited) The dramatic escalation of Russia’s crisis over the past twenty four hours is clearly not good news for the world economy. Nonetheless, both trade and financial links between Russia and the rest of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble’s collapse trigger capital controls in Russia? The renewed sharp falls in the ruble today will fuel speculation that the authorities could resort to increasingly unorthodox measures to help stabilise the currency, including capital controls. But... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (November) Russian inflation accelerated sharply to 9.1% y/y in November and, with the ruble falling further over the past few weeks, it is on course to continue rising over the coming months. We think that... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
