Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) Inflation in Russia jumped to a five-year high of 15.0% y/y last month, as the effects of the sharp fall in the ruble towards the end of last year led to a surge in import prices. The big rise in... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2014) Preliminary annual 2014 Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 0.6% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a small year-on-year fall in GDP in the final quarter of last year... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further will Moscow rental values fall? Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a buffer do Russia’s FX reserves provide? We’re often asked about the extent to which Russia’s sizeable foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against lower oil prices and capital flight and for how long they might last. There are lots of... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & anti-crisis measures The key point that stands out in December’s activity data for Russia is the sharp jump in retail sales growth. However, this reflects panic buying as the ruble collapsed at the end of last year. Hence... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Impact of Russian wheat restrictions should be limited As a major exporter of wheat, any measures imposed by Russia to keep more supplies at home arelikely to result in higher global prices, though current market conditions should limit the upside... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Russian ruble “extremely undervalued”? We are not convinced by the Russian finance ministry’s claim on Wednesday morning that the ruble is “extremely undervalued”. After all, Russia has undergone an enormous deterioration in its terms of... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
